NOTE: The following data and analysis is based on experience through 6/30/2021, prior to the onset of the late-summer surge in COVID cases driven by the Delta Variant. As of this writing the data has not developed sufficiently to allow us to provide insight on the impact of the “4th Wave” on the Life Settlement population. We will provide another update in the coming [...]
Executive Summary: The 3rd wave of the pandemic was the most widespread and deadly. Through 2020, we did not find evidence of protection on Life Settlement lives from COVID. However, in January 2021, at the peak of the 3rd wave, we saw the first signs that vaccines may be reducing excess mortality in Life Settlements. Many Life Settlement lives are in the highest [...]
Executive Summary: Historically, mortality rates trend downward during the summer months, but in the summer of 2020 mortality was on the rise for life settlements. In total from April through September, we observed at-most a very small protection from COVID-19 on the life settlements population. COVID vaccines will likely reduce excess mortality in life settlements significantly by Spring 2021. Insureds in nursing homes and [...]
This post updates our previous analysis which estimated a COVID-19 net mortality risk factor for the life settlements population between 6x and 12x. Since then, we have seen a decrease in life settlements excess mortality resulting in a net risk estimate at the floor of our original range, around 6x. This is consistent with a delayed protective wealth effect where the delay is explained [...]
In this post we estimate an “equal-risk” projection of COVID-19 mortality within life settlements using the geographic overlap of COVID-19 deaths with life settlement insureds. By comparing this equal-risk rate to observed data, we estimate a net mortality risk factor of 6-12x for the life settlements population. This is on par with a simple age-weighted projection of mortality and suggests socio-economic advantages may have [...]
In this post, we investigate how the unique comorbidity profile among life settlements lives may impact outcomes due to COVID-19. Our analysis concluded that life settlements likely represents a higher risk comorbidity profile than either the U.S. adult or senior populations. Due to correlations with age, we could not conclude whether this increased vulnerability extends the vulnerability due to age alone as presented in [...]
In this post, we look at whether COVID-19 has had an impact on the number of obituaries being reported, as they are a critical source of death data. Note that the charts in this post are interactive. PBI Research Services , a subsidiary of Longevity Holdings LLC , is a national leader in death auditing and mortality tracking. Their mortality data is captured from [...]
